Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union finally comes before parliament for a vote today. The deal is expected to fall short, leaving Britain with several more difficult choices, but the margin of May’s defeat will be a strong influence on which way it goes.
No-one really knows what will happen, but there’s some agreement on the margin-of-defeat issue.
╔══════════════════╦══════════════════════════╗ ║ Margin of Defeat ║ Possible Outcomes ║ ╠══════════════════╬══════════════════════════╣ ║ May wins ║ Frankenbrexit ║ ╠══════════════════╬══════════════════════════╣ ║ 50 votes or less ║ EU offers concessions ║ ║ ║ Quick 2nd vote ║ ╠══════════════════╬══════════════════════════╣ ║ 50-100 votes ║ More negotiations ║ ║ ║ Late 2nd vote ║ ╠══════════════════╬══════════════════════════╣ ║ 100+ votes ║ No deal Brexit ║ ║ ║ Soft Brexit ║ ║ ║ General election ║ ║ ║ 2nd Referendum ║ ║ ║ Vote of No Confidence ║ ║ ║ Backbench rebellion ║ ║ ║ Currency collapse ║ ║ ║ Zombie horrorcaust ║ ║ ║ Global Thermonuclear War ║ ╚══════════════════╩══════════════════════════╝