The Los Angeles Times gathered predictions for technology's future from seven people — John Brockman, Steve Ballmer, Ned Sherman, Rafat Ali, Kevin Werbach, Chris Anderson, Hank Barry — and their responses are online today.
Here's a snip from what Chris Anderson (Wired, The Long Tail) had to say:
I'M WILLING TO bet that 2007 is the year that somebody figures out how to make video advertising work in a YouTube world. And if I'm right, the TV industry is going to get very rocky, very fast.
I doubt that the same disruptive force will hit movies, however. The big-screen home-theater boom created a market for high-def films, and that factor-of-10 increase in downloading time bought Hollywood another five years or so to figure things out.
And here's a snip from EDGE.org publisher John Brockman's thoughts:
WE WILL SEE migration of social applications as user-generated content moves to the WiFi environment. YouTube, MySpace and multi-user games will be available on hand-held devices, wherever you go. People will carry their digital assets much like their bacteria. Israeli tech guru Yossi Vardi calls it "continuous computing."
The nanotechnology world foreseen by K. Eric Drexler arrives in the form of MEMS, or microelectronic mechanical systems. Very inexpensive moving parts will be mass-produced like a semiconductor. But unlike semiconductors, they move. Useful for anything that employs moving parts.
Synthetic Biology pioneer George Church of Harvard University expects $3,000 personal genomics kits in stores.
"Pop Atheism" might include popular atheist TV and movie characters, professional athletes, political figures, etc. Look for the first billion-dollar IPO for the Web service that gets atheists together for "rituals," dating and political and business networking.
Link to LA Times piece.
Previously on BB:
• Brockman: 40 years of "intermedia kinetic environments"
• More BB posts on Brockman (about 60 total)
• More BB posts on EDGE (about 50 total)
Reader comments: David C. Frier says,
Ballmer had this and this only to say about 2007, "You'll be back in control."
How viciously will this man have to insult his customers before they just go away? The Vista licensing agreement is being described as the "world's longest suicide note." Has Steve read it? Did you know that it goes WAY beyond DRM on content… to the extent of reserving the right remotely to disable YOUR hardware should MS decide at some time in the future that it's not up to snuff? "Back" in control? Does he imply that I am already out of control? Suppose I am, how much of that is due to his handiwork?
Never mind Steve. I have converted one of my old machines to Linux and so have begun the process of stepping away from my 23 years of MS experience to make his arrogantly worded prediction come true — at least for me. By the end of '07 I hope to be running none of his products anywhere in my life.
(Note that this email comes to you from MS-Outlook, which may be the toughest drug of all to kick — PDA synch is a Holy Grail.)
